Back-to-School Ad Timing: Most Campaigns Launch too Late

This week, the National Retail Federation (NRF) released a report stating that back-to-school spending is expected to reach USD $146.8 billion in 2026. However, the latest analysis by creator marketing platform, Billo, found that many businesses don’t take full advantage of this shopping event.

Last year, most sales were made in August, while ad volume continued increasing and did not peak until September. This year, experts recommend brands launch their back-to-school campaigns in July, rather than waiting until autumn. That’s especially true for digital advertising.

SAN FRANCISCO, July 21, 2026 – Billo’s analysis of 79,347 US creator-video ad records found that purchase value peaked in August 2025 before falling 6% in September, even as the number of ads running increased 8%. Purchases also declined 5% in September, while ad volume reached its highest level of the three-month period.

The findings come as the National Retail Federation forecasts that families will spend $43.3 billion on K–12 back-to-school purchases in 2026, while college students and their families will spend $103.5 billion – a combined $146.8 billion.

“The brands that win during the back-to-school season are not necessarily those running the most ads. Ad volume increased in September even as purchase value and overall ROAS declined, meaning the highest number of ads was running after the strongest commercial month had passed,” said Donatas Smailys, CEO of Billo. “AI has made it easier to produce dozens of ad variations, but greater volume does not automatically produce better results. Timing and content that feels authentic still matter.”

According to NRF data, a third of shoppers had already begun looking for school supplies and gear by early June, the largest share since NRF began tracking the data in 2018. Gen Z and Millennial shoppers drove much of that early start. Billo’s data provides a closer look at how advertising activity and performance differed across the three-month period and between product categories.

Ad Volume Continued Rising After Purchase Value Peaked

Billo’s analysis covers 79,347 creator video ads across 15 product categories during the 2025 back-to-school season.

The data shows a clear gap: shopper demand peaked in August, while brands continued to increase ad volume into September, even as interest was already fading. The table below breaks down purchases and ad volume by month:

Apparel & Accessories Remained Consistent, While Electronics and Home & Garden Categories Grew

Billo’s analysis found three categories that stood out for how they handled the season:

• Apparel & Accessories delivered the most consistent returns of any category, generating purchase value equal to roughly 3.2 times ad spend, holding steady across all three months (3.20 in July, 3.20 in August, 3.15 in September).
• Electronics saw the sharpest change in demand. Purchases nearly tripled in August, up 186% from July, driven by laptops, headphones, and dorm tech. Demand stayed high into September, holding about 150% above July levels.
• Home & Garden, the “room setup” category, improved steadily as the season progressed, generating 1.99 times ad spend in July, rising to 2.11 times in August and 2.15 times in September.

“It makes sense that electronics and home goods saw a spike; those purchases are directly tied to going back to school,” Smailys said. “Apparel is different, since there’s no obvious reason clothing shopping should follow the same curve. But apparel brands that kept their campaigns running the entire season saw some of the strongest, most consistent results of any category. That’s a pretty clear signal that consistency, not the calendar, was doing the work.”

How Brands Can Make the Most of the Season

Based on these findings, Donatas points to a few practical steps brands can take heading into this year’s back-to-school season:

• Start in July, stay consistent through August. Launch in July to catch early demand, hold spend through August.
• Treat September as a time to sustain, not launch. Fewer shoppers were actively looking or buying in September than in August. That makes it a better month to keep existing campaigns running than to start new ones.
• Adjust the timing based on your category. Different products saw demand build at different speeds. In electronics, for example, brands that launched early benefited from the first surge in demand. Apparel, on the other hand, performed best when brands participated throughout the season rather than concentrating spend in a single month.
• Use creator (UGC) content to move fast. As creator video ads can be produced and launched quickly, brands don’t need months of lead time to get their campaigns live, so they can actually fit into that early-July window instead of missing it.

Methodology

Findings are based on Billo’s analysis of 79,347 creator video ads from US run on its platform during the July–September 2025 spanning 15 product categories. Return on ad spend (ROAS) is calculated as total purchase value divided by total ad spend. Engagement figures reflect an ad-weighted average of category-level click-through rates. These are actual platform performance figures, distinct from NRF’s survey-based spending intentions.

About Billo

Billo is the leading UGC marketplace founded in 2019 that connects brands with creators to produce high-performing social video ads. It is based in San Francisco, CA, and is led by co-founder and CEO Donatas Smailys. The platform combines the power of UGC content with a streamlined production process, helping brands increase brand awareness, drive traffic, and boost conversions with authentic creator videos on TikTok, Meta, YouTube, and other platforms.

Source: Billo via Sensus PR

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